 Created by Sarah Keeley, last modified on Jul 29, 2016
Time  Monday  Tuesday  Wednesday  Thursday  Friday 

9:30 10:45  Meet the students  The infrared spectrum measurement, modelling and information content Tony McNally  GPS Radio Occulation: Extended applications Sean Healy  Observation errors for satellite data assimilation Niels Bormann  Satellites for environmental monitoring and forecasting Richard Engelen 
11:15...12:30  Theoretical background (1) What do satellites measure ? Tony McNally  GPS Radio Occulation: Principles and NWP use Sean Healy  The detection and assimilation of clouds in infrared radiances Tony McNally  Background errors for satellite data assimilation Tony McNally  Systematic errors, monitoring and autoalert systems Mohamed Dahoui 
14:00...15:15  Theoretical background (2) Data assimilation algorithms, Key elements and inputs Tony McNally  Satellite information on the ocean surface (SCAT) Giovanna De Chiara  The detection and assimilation of clouds and rain in microwave radiances Alan Geer  Satellite information on the land surface Patricia de Rosnay  Current satellite observing network and its future evolution Stephen English 
15:45...17:00  The microwave spectrum, measurement, modelling and information content Alan Geer  A Practical guide to IR and MW radiative transfer – using the RTTOV model and GUI James Hocking (UK Met Office)  Wind information from satellites (Atmospheric Motion Vectors) Katie Lean  1DVar theory, simulator + practical session on background and observation errors Tony McNally  Question and answer session, course evaluation 
Time  Monday  Tuesday  Wednesday  Thursday  Friday 

9.15  Introductions  Vertical discretisation The goal of this session is to provide an overview of the use of generalised curvilinear coordinates in atmospheric numerical models. By the end of the session you should be able to:
Christian Kühnlein  Hydrostatic/Nonhydrostatic dynamics, resolved/permitted convection and interfacing to physical parameterizations During this presentation, we will discuss two of the questions faced by numerical weather prediction scientists as forecast models reach horizontal resolutions of 6 to 2 km:
By the end of the presentation, you should be able to:
Sylvie Malardel
 Semiimplicit integrations of nonhydrostatic PDEs of atmospheric dynamics The aim of this lecture is to systematically build theoretical foundations for Numerical Weather Prediction at nonhydrostatic resolutions. In the first part of the lecture, we will discuss a suite of allscale nonhydrostatic PDEs, including the anelastic, the pseudoincompressible and the fully compressible Euler equations of atmospheric dynamics. First we will introduce the three sets of nonhydrostatic governing equations written in a physically intuitive Cartesian vector form, in abstraction from the model geometry and the coordinate frame adopted. Then, we will combine the three sets into a single set recast in a form of the conservation laws consistent with the problem geometry and the unified solution procedure. In the second part of the lecture, we will build and document the common numerical algorithm for integrating the generalised set of the governing PDEs put forward in the first part of the lecture. Then, we will compare soundproof and compressible solutions and demonstrate the efficacy of this unified numerical framework for two idealised flow problems relevant to weather and climate. By the end of the lecture you should be able to:
Piotr Smolarkiewicz Course2016_smolar.pdf  Discontinuous higher order discretization methods The aim of this session is to learn about recent developments in discontinuous higher order spatial discretization methods, such as the Discontinuous Galerkin method (DG), and the Spectral Difference method (SD). These methods are of interest because they can be used on unstructured meshes and facilitate optimal parallel efficiency. We will present an overview of higher order grid point methods for discretizing partial differential equations (PDE's) with compact stencil support, and illustrate a practical implementation. By the end of the session you should be able to:
Willem Deconinck 
10.35  Numerics + Discretization in NWP today Using the 30year history of ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as an example, thelecture is an introduction to the development and current stateoftheart of global numerical weather prediction (NWP), as well as to the challenges faced in the future. It is intended to provide an overview and context for the topics covered in more detail during the course. By the end of the session you should be able to:
Nils Wedi  Mesh adaptivity using continuous mappings The goal of this session is to provide an overview of the use of generalised curvilinear coordinates in atmospheric numerical models. By the end of the session you should be able to:
Christian Kühnlein  Practical Session Willem Deconinck, Christian Kühnlein  Semiimplicit integrations of nonhydrostatic PDEs of atmospheric dynamics The aim of this lecture is to systematically build theoretical foundations for Numerical Weather Prediction at nonhydrostatic resolutions. In the first part of the lecture, we will discuss a suite of allscale nonhydrostatic PDEs, including the anelastic, the pseudoincompressible and the fully compressible Euler equations of atmospheric dynamics. First we will introduce the three sets of nonhydrostatic governing equations written in a physically intuitive Cartesian vector form, in abstraction from the model geometry and the coordinate frame adopted. Then, we will combine the three sets into a single set recast in a form of the conservation laws consistent with the problem geometry and the unified solution procedure. In the second part of the lecture, we will build and document the common numerical algorithm for integrating the generalised set of the governing PDEs put forward in the first part of the lecture. Then, we will compare soundproof and compressible solutions and demonstrate the efficacy of this unified numerical framework for two idealised flow problems relevant to weather and climate. By the end of the lecture you should be able to:
Piotr Smolarkiewicz  Discontinuous higher order discretization methods The aim of this session is to learn about recent developments in discontinuous higher order spatial discretization methods, such as the Discontinuous Galerkin method (DG), and the Spectral Difference method (SD). These methods are of interest because they can be used on unstructured meshes and facilitate optimal parallel efficiency. We will present an overview of higher order grid point methods for discretizing partial differential equations (PDE's) with compact stencil support, and illustrate a practical implementation. By the end of the session you should be able to:
Willem Deconinck 
11.45 
The spectral transform method The success of the spectral transform method in global NWP in comparison to alternative methods has been overwhelming, with many operational forecast centres (including ECMWF) having madethe spectral transform their method of choice. The lecture will introduce the basic elements of the spectral transform, explain why it has been successful and describe recent developments such as the fast Legendre transform. By the end of the session you should be able to:
Nils Wedi Lecture_2_wedi.pptx 
Towards an EarthSystem Model Recently, there is in increasing interest in trying to understand the properties of coupled atmosphere, oceanwave, ocean/seaice models with an ultimate goal to start predicting weather, waves and ocean circulation on time scales ranging from the mediumrange to seasonal timescale. Such a coupled system not only requires the development of an efficient coupled forecasting system but also the development of a data assimilation component. During the two lectures I will briefly describe the components of the coupled system. It will be made plausible that ocean waves are an essential element of such a coupled system as through the wave action, momentum and heat are transferred from atmosphere to ocean. Also, the sea state determines to a considerable extent the efficiency with which momentum is transferred from atmosphere to waves, while ocean waves also play a decisive role in the evolution of the seaice edge. Results showing the importance of ocean waves on upperocean mixing and on atmospheric circulation are discussed as well, while I will finish the lectures by presenting preliminary results from coupled data assimilation experiments. By the end of this session, the student will be able to:
Jean Bidlot Advance_numerical_method_for_earth_modelling_Jean_Bidlot.pptx 
Practical Session Willem Deconinck, Christian Kühnlein  Massively parallel computing for NWP and climate The aim of this session is to understand the main issues and challenges in parallel computing, and how parallel computers are programmed today. By the end of this session you should be able to
George Mozdzynski  Course wrap up and Certificates 
14.00  The semiLagrangian, semiimplicit technique of the ECMWF model The aim of this session is to describe the numerical technique used in the ECMWF model for integrating the transport equations of the hydrostatic primitive equation set. We will present an overview of the semiLagrangian method and how it is combined with semiimplicit timestepping to provide a stable and accurate formulation for the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). By the end of this session you should be able to:
Michail Diamantakis  Towards an EarthSystem Model Recently, there is in increasing interest in trying to understand the properties of coupled atmosphere, oceanwave, ocean/seaice models with an ultimate goal to start predicting weather, waves and ocean circulation on time scales ranging from the mediumrange to seasonal timescale. Such a coupled system not only requires the development of an efficient coupled forecasting system but also the development of a data assimilation component. During the two lectures I will briefly describe the components of the coupled system. It will be made plausible that ocean waves are an essential element of such a coupled system as through the wave action, momentum and heat are transferred from atmosphere to ocean. Also, the sea state determines to a considerable extent the efficiency with which momentum is transferred from atmosphere to waves, while ocean waves also play a decisive role in the evolution of the seaice edge. Results showing the importance of ocean waves on upperocean mixing and on atmospheric circulation are discussed as well, while I will finish the lectures by presenting preliminary results from coupled data assimilation experiments. By the end of this session, the student will be able to:
Jean Bidlot  Introduction to element based computing, finite volume and finite element methods The aim of two lectures is to introduce basis of finite volume and continuous finite element discretisations and relate them to corresponding data structures and mesh generation techniques. The main focus will be on unstructured meshes and their application to global and local atmospheric models. Flexibility, communication overheads, memory requirements and user friendliness of such meshes with be contrasted with those of structured meshes. The most commonly used mesh generation techniques will be highlighted, together with mesh manipulation techniques employed in mesh adaption approaches and will be followed by a discussion of alternative geometrical representations of orography. An example of unstructured meshes’ implementation to nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic atmospheric solvers will provide an illustration of their potential and challenges. By the end of the lecture you should be able to:
Joanna Szmelter 2016.ppt2016.ppt  Massively parallel computing for NWP and climate The aim of this session is to understand the main issues and challenges in parallel computing, and how parallel computers are programmed today. By the end of this session you should be able to
George Mozdzynski 

15.30  Alternative timestepping schemes for atmospheric modelling The aim of this session is to describe alternative (to the semiLagrangian) numerical techniques for integrating the transport equation sets encountered in NWP models. We will present an overview of different Eulerian timestepping techniques and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each approach. By the end of the session you should be able to:
Michail Diamantakis 
Hydrostatic/Nonhydrostatic dynamics, resolved/permitted convection and interfacing to physical parameterizations During this presentation, we will discuss two of the questions faced by numerical weather prediction scientists as forecast models reach horizontal resolutions of 6 to 2 km:
By the end of the presentation, you should be able to:
resolution.pdf Sylvie Malardel  Mesh generation The aim of two lectures is to introduce basis of finite volume and continuous finite element discretisations and relate them to corresponding data structures and mesh generation techniques. The main focus will be on unstructured meshes and their application to global and local atmospheric models. Flexibility, communication overheads, memory requirements and user friendliness of such meshes with be contrasted with those of structured meshes. The most commonly used mesh generation techniques will be highlighted, together with mesh manipulation techniques employed in mesh adaption approaches and will be followed by a discussion of alternative geometrical representations of orography. An example of unstructured meshes’ implementation to nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic atmospheric solvers will provide an illustration of their potential and challenges. By the end of the lecture you should be able to:
Joanna Szmelter
 Operational and research activities at ECMWF now/in the future In this lecture we will give you a brief history of ECMWF and present the main areas of NWP research that is currently being carried out in the centre. We then look at current research challenges and present some of the latest developments that will soon become operational. By the end of the lecture you should be able to:
Sarah Keeley and Erland Källén ECMWFPastFutureNM_2016_EK.pptx


Monday  Tuesday  Wednesday  Thursday  Friday 

Introduction to the course Erland Källén / Students
 Clouds (2) This session describes the representation of subgridscale variability of humidity, cloud and precipitation and how this can be parametrized in atmospheric models. By the end of the session you should be able to: • recognise the reasons for representing the subgrid variability of humidity and cloud in an atmospheric model • explain how the key quantity of cloud fraction is related to subgrid heterogeneity assumptions • describe the different types of subgrid cloud parametrization schemes. Richard Forbes  Land Surface (2):Snow This session will have two mains components:
By the end of the session, the students should be able:
Emanuel Dutra  Land Surface (3): Surface Energy, Water Cycle By the end of the session, the students should be able:
Gianpaolo Balsamo  Parametrization and Data Assimilation This threehour lecture will start by explaining the role and main ingredients of data assimilation in general. The widely used framework of variational data assimilation will then be gradually introduced. The challenges associated with the necessary inclusion of physical parametrizations in the data assimilation process will be highlighted. The concept of adjoint model as well as the techniques to derive it will be introduced. The importance of the linearity constraint in 4DVar and the methods to address it will be detailed. The set of linearized physical parametrizations used at ECMWF will then be briefly presented. Finally, various examples of the use of physical parametrizations in variational data assimilation and its impact on weather forecast quality will be given. By the end of the session, the students should be able: • to name the main ingredients of a data assimilation system. • to tell why physical parametrizations are needed in data assimilation. • to identify the role of the adjoint code in 4DVar. • to recognize the importance of the regularization of the linearized code. Philippe Lopez 
Radiation (1) This module aims to introduce the fundamentals of radiative transfer theory and its role within the global atmospheric circulation. The lectures will also cover the techniques of numerical modelling of the radiative transfer equations in globalcirculation models with a particular focus on the code in use in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System. By the end of the session students should be able to: • Identify the key processes controlling the atmospheric radiative balance • Recognize the role of the radiative transfer in the Earth energy balance • Estimate the impact of changes in the radiative parameterizations on climate Additional outcomes: • Develop skills in data analysis and numerical modelling
Robin Hogan  Convection (1) Convection affects all atmospheric scales. Therefore, the convection session aims to provide a deeper understanding of the atmospheric general circulation and its interaction with convective heating and vertical transports. The notions and techniques acquired during the course should be useful for developers of convective parametrizations, forecasters and for analysing ouput from highresolution convection resolving models. By the end of the session you should become familiarised with • the interaction between the largescale circulation and the convection including radiativeconvective equilibrium and convectivelycoupled largescale waves • the notion of convective adjustment and the mass flux concept in particular • the basic concepts behind the ECMWF convection parametrization and some useful numerical tricks • forecasting convection including convective systems and the diurnal cycle • diagnose forecast errors related to convection. Peter Bechtold  Radiation (3) This module aims to introduce the fundamentals of radiative transfer theory and its role within the global atmospheric circulation. The lectures will also cover the techniques of numerical modelling of the radiative transfer equations in globalcirculation models with a particular focus on the code in use in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System. By the end of the session students should be able to: • Identify the key processes controlling the atmospheric radiative balance • Recognize the role of the radiative transfer in the Earth energy balance • Estimate the impact of changes in the radiative parameterizations on climate Additional outcomes: • Develop skills in data analysis and numerical modelling Robin Hogan  Convection (3) Convection affects all atmospheric scales. Therefore, the convection session aims to provide a deeper understanding of the atmospheric general circulation and its interaction with convective heating and vertical transports. The notions and techniques acquired during the course should be useful for developers of convective parametrizations, forecasters and for analysing ouput from highresolution convection resolving models. By the end of the session you should become familiarised with • the interaction between the largescale circulation and the convection including radiativeconvective equilibrium and convectivelycoupled largescale waves • the notion of convective adjustment and the mass flux concept in particular • the basic concepts behind the ECMWF convection parametrization and some useful numerical tricks • forecasting convection including convective systems and the diurnal cycle • diagnose forecast errors related to convection. Peter Bechtold  Numerics of Parameterization This short lecture is an introduction to the questions of time splitting and process splitting in a numerical weather prediction model and to the problems resulting from the interaction of different numerical solvers inside the same model. After this introduction, you should • be fully aware that each parametrisation is only a small part of a much larger system, usually one term in the full system of equations which needs to be solved by the forecast model, • remember, when working on your own parametrisation(s), that parametrisations are also subject to the constraints imposed by numerical analysis and algorithmic, as is the solver in the dynamical core. Sylvie Malardel 
Boundary Layer (1) This session gives a theoretical introduction of the planetary boundary layer, including its definition, classification, notions about turbulence within the boundary layer, differences between clear and cloudy boundary layers, and equations used to describe the mean state in a numerical model. Expected outcomes: • understand what is the boundary layer, its characteristics and why it is important to study it and represent it correctly in numerical models • understand the difference between the various boundary layer types Irina Sandu  Radiation (2) This module aims to introduce the fundamentals of radiative transfer theory and its role within the global atmospheric circulation. The lectures will also cover the techniques of numerical modelling of the radiative transfer equations in globalcirculation models with a particular focus on the code in use in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System. By the end of the session students should be able to: • Identify the key processes controlling the atmospheric radiative balance • Recognize the role of the radiative transfer in the Earth energy balance • Estimate the impact of changes in the radiative parameterizations on climate Additional outcomes: • Develop skills in data analysis and numerical modelling Alessio Bozzo  Convection (2) Convection affects all atmospheric scales. Therefore, the convection session aims to provide a deeper understanding of the atmospheric general circulation and its interaction with convective heating and vertical transports. The notions and techniques acquired during the course should be useful for developers of convective parametrizations, forecasters and for analysing ouput from highresolution convection resolving models. By the end of the session you should become familiarised with • the interaction between the largescale circulation and the convection including radiativeconvective equilibrium and convectivelycoupled largescale waves • the notion of convective adjustment and the mass flux concept in particular • the basic concepts behind the ECMWF convection parametrization and some useful numerical tricks • forecasting convection including convective systems and the diurnal cycle • diagnose forecast errors related to convection. Peter Bechtold  Clouds (3) Building on the previous two Cloud sessions, the practical implementation of a cloud parametrization is described, using the ECMWF global model as an example appropriate for global weather forecasting. By the end of the session you should be able to: • explain the key sources and sinks of cloud and precipitation required in a parametrization • describe the main components of the ECMWF stratiform cloud parametrization • recognise the limitations of approximating complex processes. Richard Forbes  Model Evaluation: Clouds and Boundary Layer This session will give an overview of techniques and data sources used for the verification of the boundary layer scheme. We will use examples from the IFS to explore how verification methods can help to identify systematic errors in the model's boundary layer parameterization, and guide future model development. By the end of this session you should be able to: • Identify data sources and products suitable for BL verification • Recognize the strengths and limitations of the verification strategies discussed • Choose a suitable verification method to investigate model errors in boundary layer height, transport and cloudiness. Maike Ahlgrimm 
Clouds (1) This session gives a brief overview of cloud parametrization issues and an understanding of the basic microphysics of liquid, ice and mixed phase cloud and precipitation processes. By the end of the session you should be able to: • recall the basic concepts for the design of a cloud parametrization • describe the key microphysical processes in the atmosphere • recognize the important microphysical processes that need to be parametrized in a global NWP model. Richard Forbes  Boundary Layer (2) This session focuses on representation of the surface layer, i.e. the layer between the surface and the first model level. More particularly, it explains how the surface fluxes are parametrized, and it gives insights on the representation of the surfaces roughness lengths which are one of the crucial aspects of the formulation of the surface fluxes. Expected outcomes: • be aware of the difficulties related to the representation of the surface layer in a numerical model • understand how the surface fluxes are parametrized Irina Sandu  Boundary Layer (3) This session explains the different approaches used in numerical models to parametrize the turbulent mixing taking place at the subgrid scale, above the surface layer. Various turbulence closures are presented before describing closure currently used in the ECMWF model. Expected outcomes: • understand what a turbulence closure is and what are the types of closures encountered in numerical models • have an overview of the parameterization of turbulent mixing in the ECMWF model Irina Sandu  Parametrization and Data Assimilation This threehour lecture will start by explaining the role and main ingredients of data assimilation in general. The widely used framework of variational data assimilation will then be gradually introduced. The challenges associated with the necessary inclusion of physical parametrizations in the data assimilation process will be highlighted. The concept of adjoint model as well as the techniques to derive it will be introduced. The importance of the linearity constraint in 4DVar and the methods to address it will be detailed. The set of linearized physical parametrizations used at ECMWF will then be briefly presented. Finally, various examples of the use of physical parametrizations in variational data assimilation and its impact on weather forecast quality will be given. By the end of the session, the students should be able: • to name the main ingredients of a data assimilation system. • to tell why physical parametrizations are needed in data assimilation. • to identify the role of the adjoint code in 4DVar. • to recognize the importance of the regularization of the linearized code. Philippe Lopez  Parameterization of Subgrid Orography On the basis of simple gravity wave theory, the concepts of subgrib turbulent form drag, flow blocking, and gravity wave excitation will be introduced. The ECMWF formulations will be described, and the impact will be discussed. By the end of the session students should be able to: • Describe the relevant physical mechanisms related to subgrid orography that have impact on flow in the atmosphere. • Describe the impact of subgrid orography.
Anton Beljaars 
Land Surface (1): Introduction By the end of the session students should be able to:
Gianpaolo Balsamo  Introduction to the Single Column Model Filip Vana Radiation exercises Alessio Bozzo and Robin Hogan
 Land Surface exercises Gianpaolo Balsama and Emanuel Dutra
 Boundary Layer & Cloud exercises Irina Sandu, Maike Ahlgrimm and Richard Forbes
 Moist Processes Exercises Richard Forbes and Peter Bechtold 
Moist Processes Games Richard Forbes and Peter Bechtold  Radiation exercises Alessio Bozzo and Robin Hogan  Land Surface exercises Gianpaolo Balsama and Emanuel Dutra  Boundary Layer & Cloud exercises Irina Sandu, Maike Ahlgrimm and Richard Forbes  Course wrap up and certificates 
Time:  Monday  Tuesday  Wednesday  Thursday  Friday 

9.1510.15  Introduction to the course with Computer Hall tour  Initial uncertainties in the mediumrange ENS (2) In this session the generation of the perturbed initial condition of the ECMWF ensemble will be presented. We will discuss the ratio behind using singular vectors in the ensemble and how they are calculated. Then it will be explained how the singular vectors are combined with perturbations from the ensemble of data assimilations to construct the perturbations for the ensemble. By the end of the session you should be able to:
Ensemble data assimilation The aim of this session is to introduce the ECMWF ensemble of data assimilation (EDA). The rationale and methodology of the EDA will be illustrated, and its use in to simulate initial uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (ENS) will be presented. By the end of the session you should be able to:
Roberto Buizza  Ensemble verification (2) Abstract: The lectures introduce methods of ensemble verification. They cover the verification of discrete forecasts (e.g. dry/wet) and continuous scalar forecasts (e.g. temperature). Various scores such as the Brier score and the continuous ranked probability score are introduced. After the lectures you should be able to
Martin Leutbecher
 Coupled oceanatmosphere variability This lecture provides a broad overview of the role of the ocean on the predictability and prediction of weather and climate. It introduces some basic phenomena needed to to understand the time scales and nature of the oceanatmosphere coupling.
Magdalena Balmaseda  Initializaton techniques in seasonal forecasting
Magdalena Balmaseda tcourse16_Initialization.pptx 
10.351135  Introduction to Chaos The aim of this session is to introduce the idea of chaos. We will discuss the implications this has for numerical weather prediction. By the end of the session you should be able to:
Sarah Keeley  Approaches to ensemble prediction/TIGGE The aim of this session is to illustrate the key characteristic of the nine operational global, mediumrange ensemble systems. These are the ensembles available also within the TIGGE (Thorpex Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) project database. Similarity and differences in the approaches followed to simulate the sources of forecast uncertainties will be discussed, and their relevance for forecast performance will be illustrated. By the end of the session you should be able to:
Roberto Buizza  Weather regimes
Franco Molteni  Coupled oceanatmosphere variability  MJO Frederic Vitart
 The monthly forecast system at ECMWF The aim of this session is to provide a general overview of monthly forecasting at ECMWF. We will review the main sources of predictability for the subseasonal time scale, including the Madden Julian Oscillation, sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), land initial conditions and their simulation by the coupled IFSNEMO system. The skill of the ECMWF operational monthly forecasts will also be discussed. By the end of the session you should be able to:
Frederic Vitart 
11.4512.45  Sources of uncertainty The aim of this session is to introduce the main sources of uncertainty that lead to forecast errors. The weather prediction problem will be discussed, and stated it in terms of an appropriate probability density function (PDF). The concept of ensemble prediction based on a finite number of integration will be introduced, and the reason why it is to be the only feasible method to predict the PDF beyond the range of linear growth will be illustrated. By the end of the session you should be able to:
Roberto Buizza  Ensemble verification (1) Abstract: The lectures introduce methods of ensemble verification. They cover the verification of discrete forecasts (e.g. dry/wet) and continuous scalar forecasts (e.g. temperature). Various scores such as the Brier score and the continuous ranked probability score are introduced. After the lectures you should be able to
Martin Leutbecher
 Clustering techniques and their applications The aim of this session is to understand the ECMWF clustering products. By the end of the session you should be able to:
Laura Ferranti  Diagnostics (2) Increasing observation volumes and model complexity, decreasing errors, and a growing desire for uncertainty information, all necessitate developments in our diagnostic tools. The aim of these lectures is to discuss some of these tools, the dynamical insight behind them, and the residual deficiencies that they are highlighting. By the end of the lectures you should be aware of:
Mark Rodwell  The seasonal forecast system at ECMWF This lecture covers the essentials of building a numerical seasonal forecast system, as exemplified by the present prediction system at ECMWF.
By the end of this lecture, you should be able to:
Tim Stockdale

2.003.00  Sources of predictability beyond the deterministic limit The aim of this session is to understand how we are able to provide forecasts at long time horizons given the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. After this session you should be able to:
Sarah Keeley
 Using stochastic physics to represent model error After this lecture, students will be able to:
SarahJane Lock
 Diagnostics (1) Increasing observation volumes and model complexity, decreasing errors, and a growing desire for uncertainty information, all necessitate developments in our diagnostic tools. The aim of these lectures is to discuss some of these tools, the dynamical insight behind them, and the residual deficiencies that they are highlighting. By the end of the lectures you should be aware of:
Mark Rodwell  Postprocessing of ensemble forecasts This lecture gives an overview of ensemble and postprocessing and calibration techniques. The presentation is made from the mediumrange forecast perspective. The (relative) benefits of calibration and multimodel combination for mediumrange forecasting are also discussed.
By the end of this lecture, you should be able to:
Tim Stockdale  2.45pm Discussion Session in the Weather Room Latest forecasts The latest medium, monthly and seasonal forecasts will be discussed in terms of out look and performance. This is a combined event with the weekly weather discussion that ECMWF staff attend. 
3.304.30  Initial uncertainties in the mediumrange ENS (1) The aim of the this lecture is to discuss basic concepts behind initial perturbation techniques. After the lecture you should be able to:
Linus Magnusson  Stratospheric impacts
Ted Shepherd ECMWF_Predictability_2016_new.pdf
 Practice Session:
Lorenz '95 model You get the opportunity to experiment yourself with an ensemble prediction system for a chaotic lowdimensional dynamical system introduced by Edward Lorenz in 1995. Experiments permit to study the role of the initial condition perturbations and the representation of model uncertainties. Various metrics introduced in the ensemble verification lectures will be applied in this session.
After the practice session, you will be able to use the toy model as an educational tool.
Martin Leutbecher 
Practice Session: Ensemble Verification Linus Magnusson/Sarah Keeley 

4.305.15  Understanding Ensembles Practical
5.15 Poster session and ice breaker  Lecture and Practice Session: Application of ENS: Flood Abstract: The lecture is a short introduction to operational hydrological ensemble prediction systems, with focus on flooding. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is described. The lecture also contains a short interactive exercise in decision making under uncertainty using prbabilistic forecasts as an example. By the end of the session you should be able to:
Fredrik Wetterhall  Practical extension  Practical extension 
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