**Name: HMCR Ensemble**

The S2S database contains real-time forecasts from HMCR from 1st January 2015, and the associated re-forecasts.

### 1. Ensemble version

**Ensemble identifier code:** RUMS

**Short Description:** Global ensemble system that simulates initial uncertainties using breeding method. It is based on 20 members, run weekly (Wednesday at 00Z) up to day 61.

**Research or operational:** Operational

**Data time of first forecast run:** 07/01/2015 (for current version)

### 2. Configuration of the EPS

**Is the model coupled to an ocean model ? ** No

**If yes, please describe ocean model briefly including frequency of coupling and any ensemble perturbation applied:** -

**Is the model coupled to a sea Ice model?** No - Sea ice initial conditions are persisted up to day 15 and then relaxed to climatology up to day 45.

**If yes, please describe sea-ice model briefly including any ensemble perturbation applied:** -

**Is the model coupled to a wave model?** No

**If yes, please describe wave model briefly including any ensemble perturbation applied:** -

**Ocean model:** -

**Horizontal resolution of the atmospheric model:** 1.125x1.40625 degrees lat-lon.

**Number of model levels:** 28

**Top of model:** 5 hPa

**Type of model levels:** sigma

**Forecast length:** 61 days (1464 hours)

**Run Frequency:** weekly (Wednesday 00Z up to May 2017, Thursdays 00Z since June 2017)

**Is there an unperturbed control forecast included?:** Yes

**Number of perturbed ensemble members:** 19

**Integration time step:** 36 minutes

### 3. Initial conditions and perturbations

**Data assimilation method for control analysis:** 3D Var

**Resolution of model used to generate Control Analysis:** 0.5 degrees

**Ensemble initial perturbation strategy:** Breeding perturbations added to control analysis

**Horizontal and vertical resolution of perturbations:** 1.125x1.40625 degrees lat-lon.

**Perturbations in +/- pairs:** No

### 4. Model Uncertainties perturbations:

**Is model physics perturbed?** No

**Do all ensemble members use exactly the same model version?** Yes

**Is model dynamics perturbed?** No

**Are the above model perturbations applied to the control forecast?** – No

### 5. Surface Boundary perturbations:

**Perturbations to sea surface temperature?** No

**Perturbation to soil moisture?** No

**Perturbation to surface stress or roughness?** No

**Any other surface perturbation?** No

**Are the above surface perturbations applied to the Control forecast?** No

**Additional comments** -

### 6. Other details of the models:

**Description of model grid:** Regular lat-lon grid, sigma-coordinate in vertical.

**List of model levels in appropriate coordinates:** .0001, .0092, .01935, .03234, .04904, .06975, .09376, .12045, .15003, .1837, .2231, .2692, .3204, .3751, .4321, .4905, .5503, .6101, .6692, .72532, .77773, .82527, .86642, .90135, .93054, .95459, .97418, .99, 1.0

**What kind of large scale dynamics is used?** Finite-difference semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian, vorticity-divergence formulation (Tolstykh, JCP 2002; section 2 in Shashkin, Tolstykh, GMD 2014)

**What kind of boundary layer parameterization is used?** pTKE scheme (Geleyn, J.-F., et al 2006) with shallow convection included

**What kind of convective parameterization is used?** Bougeault (MWR 85), Ducrocq and Bougeault (95), Gerard and Geleyn (QJ 2005)

**What kind of large-scale precipitation scheme is used?** (Geleyn et al 1994)

**What cloud scheme is used?** Xu-Randall (JAS 96), diagnostic

**What kind of land-surface scheme is used?** ISBA

**How is radiation parametrized?** Ritter, Geleyn (1992), Geleyn et al (2005)

**Other relevant details?**

### 7. Re-forecast Configuration

**Number of years covered:** 26

**Produced on the fly or fix re-forecasts?** On the fly

**Frequency:** Produced on the fly once a week to calibrate the Wednesday 00Z real-time forecasts. The re-forecasts consist of a 10-member ensemble starting the same day and month as the Wednesday real-time forecasts for the years 1985-2010.

**Ensemble size:** 10 members

**Initial conditions:** quasiassimilation with ERA Interim data

**Is the model physics and resolution the same as for the real-time forecasts:** Yes

**If not, what are the differences:** N/A

**Is the ensemble generation the same as for real-time forecasts?** Yes

**If not, what are the differences:** N/A

**Other relevant information:**

HMCR re-forecasts are produced on the fly. Every week a new set of re-forecasts is produced to calibrate the real-time ensemble forecast of the given day. The ensemble re-forecasts consist of a 10-member ensemble starting the same day and month as a Wednesday real-time forecast, but covering 1985-2010 years. The re-forecast dataset is therefore updated every week in the S2S archive.

### 8. References:

**Description of the model and its parameterizations**

Tolstykh M. A. Global semi-Lagrangian numerical weather prediction model, FOP, Obninsk, Moscow, Russia, pp. 111, 2010 [Russian]

Dynamics is presented in sections 2.1 and 2.2 in V. V. Shashkin and M. A. Tolstykh, Inherently mass-conservative version of the semi-Lagrangian absolute vorticity (SL-AV) atmospheric model dynamical core, Geosci. Mod. Dev. 2014 V 7 P 407-417.

Parameterizations:

L.Gerard, and Geleyn J.-F., 2005: Evolution of a subgrid deep convection parametrization in a limited area model with increasing resolution. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 2293–2312.

Catry, B., Geleyn J.-F., F. Bouyssel, J. Cedilnik, R. Brožková, M. Derková and R. Mladek, 2008: A new subgrid scale lift formulation in a mountain drag parameterisation. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 17, pp. 193-208.

Noilhan, J. and Planton S., 1989: A simple parameterization of land surface processes for meteorological models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, pp. 536-549.

Ritter B. and Geleyn J.-F., 1992: A comprehensive radiation scheme for numerical weather prediction models with potential applications in climate simulations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, pp. 303-325.

Geleyn J.-F., Fournier R., Hello G. and Pristov N., 2005: A new bracketing technique for flexible and economical computation of thermal radiative fluxes, scattering effects included on the basis the Net Exchanged Rate (NER) formalism. WGNE ‘Blue Book’ 2005, pp. 4/7-8.

Brožková R., Derkova M., Bellus M., Farda A., 2006: Atmospheric forcing by ALADIN/MFSTEP and MFSTEP-oriented atmospheric tunings. Ocean Sci., 2, pp. 113–121.

Geleyn J.-F., Váňa F., Cedilnik J., Tudor M. and Catry B., 2006: An intermediate solution between diagnostic exchange coefficients and prognostic TKE methods for vertical turbulent transport. WGNE ‘Blue Book’ 2006, pp. 4/11-12.

Some results of the extended range forecasts:

Tolstykh M.A., Diansky N.A., Gusev A.V., Kiktev D.B., 2014: Simulation of seasonal anomalies of atmospheric circulation using coupled atmosphere–ocean model. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Vol. 50, No. 2, pp. 111–121.